Adobe predicts almost $24 billion in four-day Prime Day sales

Amazon is doubling the length of the 2025 edition of Prime Day, and Adobe forecasts a corresponding increase in online sales.

Amazon has announced that its Prime Day 2025 promotion will take place from Tuesday, July 8 – Friday, July 11. This marks the first time Prime Day, which has been a two-day event since 2017, will last four days, and Adobe is predicting big results.

[READ MORE: Three signals from a four-day Amazon Prime Day]

During the period of July 8-11, U.S. Adobe expects U.S. retailers to drive a record $23.8 billion in online spend, representing 28.4% year-over-year growth from $14.2 billion during the 48-hour Prime Day 2024. This is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season. 

Shopping on mobile devices is set to hit an all-time high, driving 52.5% of online sales (vs. desktop shopping) at $12.5 billion. Overall, Adobe forecasts tht discounts across U.S. retailers will be in the range of 10% to 24% off listed price. 

Across categories, Adobe expects apparel to have the biggest deals at 24% (vs. 20% in 2024). Other categories with major discounts will include electronics at 22% (vs. 23%), televisions at 17% (vs. 16%), appliances at 16% (vs. 14%), toys at 15% (vs. 15%), furniture at 14% (vs. 16%), computers at 12% (vs. 11%), and sporting goods at 10% (vs. 11%).

The share of the most expensive goods is set to increase by 18% compared to average levels year-to-date. In electronics the share of the most expensive goods is expected to rise by a significant 52%. Other categories Adobe expects sales growth to surpass the overall average include sporting goods (up 32%), appliances (up 29%), furniture (up 28%), toys (up 18%), personal care (up 15%), and apparel (up 9%). 

Categories where Adobe expects sales growth to drop from 2024 include home and garden (down 4%) and grocery (down 6%).

Consumers get head start on back-to-school 

Adobe predicts shopping for back-to-school essentials to take place ahead of the school season, which generally begins in mid August to early September. Adobe expects a boost in online sales for backpacks & lunchboxes (up 225% compared to the daily average in June 2025), kid’s apparel (up 200%) and general school/office supplies (up 180%).

Strong growth is also expected in twin/full mattresses & toppers (up 55%), bedroom/bathroom linens (up 49%), microwaves (up 75%), headphones & speakers (up 150%) and computers (up 140%).

Generative AI shopping assistant usage grows

A new trend Adobe is observing for 2025 is around generative AI-based chat services and browsers.During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200% year-over-year.